Drivers of recent breeding distribution and population changes in Swedish bird populations
This project aims to describe the impact of recent climate change on birds utilising data from the Swedish Breeding Bird survey. We are taking a number of different approaches with the aim of gaining a holistic overview of how population changes can drive distribution shifts and in turn drive changes in bird communities.
Detecting distribution shifts in Swedish birds
We are looking at a number of methods for identifying and quantifying the shifts in distributions that have already occurred. Our approach examines changes throughout the entire Swedish distribution, not just at range margins.
Spatial population trends
We are modelling spatial population changes to see if we can discover more about the mechanism linking population changes and distributions shifts. For example, are species that are expanding doing so because of increased productivity at the edge of their ranges or because of an overflow effect from the centre of their ranges.
Macroecology: Which species drive community response to climate change?
We have examined the impact of climate and habitat on the alpha and beta diversity of Swedish bird communities over a 13 year period. For this work we established a framework for identifying the influence individual species had on community trends. Finally, we undertook a functional trait analyses to help characterise what makes some species more influential than others.
Diversity at different scales: how does the Swedish Reserve network protect biodiversity
We plan to examine how the current reserve network in Sweden coincides with different measures of diversity. We can then examine how this will change under future climate scenarios and make recommendations about management adaptation that may be required.
Collaborators: Åke Lindström, Niclas Jonzén, Paul Caplat, Vincent Devictor, Henrik Smith